YFP 370: Your Retirement Questions Answered with Tim Baker, CFP

Tim Baker, CFP and YFP Director of Planning answers questions from the YFP community on saving and preparing for retirement. This episode is brought to you by First Horizon.

Episode Summary

Planning and preparing for retirement can feel overwhelming. In this episode, Tim Baker, CFP®, RICP®, RLP®, makes the steps to planning for retirement more manageable. He answers three questions from the YFP community on retirement planning, including:

• How to determine the optimal amount to save for retirement
• Strategies for dealing with market downturns during retirement
• How different investment options impact retirement savings

This episode is brought to you by First Horizon.

About Today’s Guest

Tim Baker is the Co-Founder and Director of Financial Planning at Your Financial Pharmacist. Founded in 2015, YFP is a fee-only financial planning firm and connects with the YFP community of 12,000+ pharmacy professionals via the Your Financial Pharmacist Podcast podcast, blog, website resources and speaking engagements. 

Tim attended the United States Military Academy majoring in International Relations and branching Armor. After his military career, he worked as a logistician with a major retailer and a construction company. After much deliberation, Tim decided to make a pivot in his career and joined a small independent financial planning firm in 2012. In 2016, he launched his own financial planning firm Script Financial and in 2019 merged with Your Financial Pharmacist. Tim now lives in Columbus, Ohio with his wife (Shay), three kids (Olivia, Liam and Zoe), and dog (Benji).

Key Points from the Episode

• Retirement planning, investment options, and home loans for pharmacists. [0:00]
• Retirement planning, including determining optimal savings amount and factors to consider. [2:24]
• Retirement planning, nest egg calculation, and potential deficits. [5:51]
• Retirement planning, including nest egg calculation and goal setting. [12:46]
• Strategies for dealing with market downturns during retirement. [19:33]
• Managing investment risk through asset allocation and flexibility. [24:25]
• Retirement planning, investment options, and their impact on savings. [28:42]
• Traditional portfolio allocation and retirement savings with emphasis on asset allocation and tax considerations. [32:49]
• Retirement planning for pharmacists, including asset allocation and tax strategies. [37:30]

Episode Highlights

“I think the big thing is how do you define optimal [savings for retirement]? And then the factors are so important. What type of lifestyle do you want? I think what most people want is to live a similar lifestyle to what they’re living as they’re working. So they don’t necessarily want to be more lavish. But they don’t necessarily want to give up things either.” – Tim Baker [4:27]

“The nest egg calculation, to me, that’s the best way to make that big number, the kind of unknown, a little bit more digestible.” – Tim Baker [9:37]

“I think a lot of people think that they have control over when they’ll retire and they don’t. There’s a stat that says 40% of people don’t work to their expected retirement age, either because of health issues, or they were eliminated from a job, etc.” -Tim Baker [11:12]

“I think the best time to plan for retirement is now and the sooner you can kind of look at where you’re at and be able to adjust where you need to go, the better.” – Tim Baker [11:44]

“When you talk about the nest egg calculation, that is where the value really lies. The short answer of how do you determine the amount of savings needed for retirement? Nest egg calculation, three words.” – Tim Ulbrich [13:39]

“So, you know, and again, the most successful retirees are the ones that are most flexible.” – Tim Baker [25:45]

“It’s being in the right asset allocation. It’s keeping your expenses low. And being consistent with that structure. I think we’ll get people through any of the seasons that you’ll see over the course of an investing career.” – Tim Baker [28:28]

Links Mentioned in Today’s Episode

• First Horizon’s Pharmacist Home Loan
• Die with Zero by Bill Perkins
• YFP Retirement Planning Series (Episodes 272-275)
  • YFP Episode 272: How Much is Enough? (Retirement Planning)
  • YFP Episode 273: Alphabet Soup of Retirement Accounts (Retirement Planning)
  • YFP Episode 274: Risk Tolerance vs Capacity (Retirement Planning)
  • YFP Episode 275: How to Build a Retirement Paycheck (Retirement Planning)
• YFP Episode 305: Understanding Annuities: A Primer for Pharmacists
• YFP Free Guide: Retirement Roadblocks: Identifying and Managing 10 Common Risks
• The Power of Working Longer (2018, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research) 
• YFP Book a Discovery Call
• YFP Disclaimer
• Subscribe to the YFP Newsletter
• Tim Ulbrich on LinkedIn
• YFP on Instagram
• YFP Facebook Group
• Tim Baker on LinkedIn

Episode Transcript

Tim Ulbrich  00:00

Hey everybody, Tim Ulbrich here and thank you for listening to the YFP Podcast where each week we strive to inspire and encourage you on your path towards achieving financial freedom. This week we take questions from the YFP community on retirement planning, we discuss how to determine the optimal amount to save for retirement strategies for dealing with market downturns during retirement, and how different investment options such as stocks, bonds, and real estate can impact your retirement savings. Let’s hear from today’s sponsor First Horizon and then we’ll jump into the show.

Tim Ulbrich  00:31

Does saving 20% for a down payment on a home feel like an uphill battle? It’s no secret that pharmacists have a lot of competing financial priorities, including high student loan debt, meaning that saving 20% for a down payment on a home may take years. For several years now we’ve been partnering with First Horizon who offers a professional home loan option AKA a doctor or pharmacist loan that requires a 3% downpayment for single family home or townhome for first time homebuyers, has no PMI, and offers a 30 year fixed rate mortgage on home loans up to $766,550 in most areas. The pharmacist home loan is available in all states except Alaska and Hawaii, and can be used to purchase condos as well, however, rates may be higher and a condo review has to be completed. While I’ve personally worked with First Horizon before and had a great experience with Tony and his team, don’t just take it from me. Here’s what Payton from Tyler, Texas had to say about his experience with First Horizon: “Aaron, Cindy, and Marilyn were very easy to work with. As a first time homebuyer, I shopped around for lenders at the onset of the process, Aaron was always very quick to reply and provide me with any details I requested in order to move forward and my decision to select a lender. Once I selected First Horizon, Marilyn and Cindy did a great job of keeping my wife and I informed of the process. Closing was a breeze yesterday at the title office. And I sincerely appreciate the team going above and beyond to keep my interest rate locked despite extending closing due to negotiations with the seller. I’ve already shared my positive experience with many pharmacists on the groups. And I look forward my brother, also a pharmacist, refinancing with you guys when he decides to.” So to check out the requirements for First Horizon’s pharmacists home loan and to start the pre-approval process, visit yourfinancialpharmacist.com/home-loan again, that’s yourfinancialpharmacist.com/home-loan. 

Tim Ulbrich  02:24

Tim Baker Good to have you back on the show.

Tim Baker  02:27

Good to be back. Tim, how’s it going?

Tim Ulbrich  02:29

It’s going well. I’m looking forward to this episode. We’re gonna be talking about retirement planning – a topic that we’re seeing a ton of interest in getting lots of questions about. You did a webinar recently around retirement planning. Lots of engagement that came from that. So we want to answer some of the most common questions we’re getting from the YFP community around retirement planning. And we’re gonna go through four different questions around how do we determine how much is enough? What are some of the strategies to deal with market downturns while you’re in retirement, I know something that you’ve talked about before of that important window before leading up to an after? And how we think about the investment strategies. We’ll talk about some of the different investment options that can impact retirement savings, and then we’ll wrap up by talking about some of the health care costs in retirement. So let’s start with the first question, Tim, which is how do you determine the optimal amount saving needed for retirement? And really, what are the factors that should be considered when setting what this number is what the goal is?

Tim Baker  03:24

Yeah, so huge question, Tim. I think, you know, I’m going to answer the question with with a question is, like, define optimal? Yeah. Right. So like, optimal? Well, we’ve talked about, you know, is, you know, should die with zero be the goal. And, you know, what am I mean by that is, there are a lot of people that, you know, they’ll save, save and save, and maybe the goal is to pass on some, you know, money to their heirs. You know, I always I think I’ve said it said this on the podcast before my parents have said to me, like, hey, we want to make sure that like when we die, like we we give, we give you and your siblings some money, and I’m like, I don’t expect that I don’t really need that. I’m not really banking on that at all. And maybe when I’m older, I would want the same thing for my you know, for my kids, but the die was zero concept is it’s kind of like, you know, you can’t take it with you type of thing. So you’re you’re kind of spending on your portfolio, you’re giving it away, etc, etc. And maybe there’s some, you know, maybe there’s some somewhere in between where you don’t want to be right on the on the needle there. You don’t want to be with zero. So you maybe you have a little bit more cushion. So, you know, I think I think that would be the big thing is like how do you define optimal? And then the factors I think are so important. So like, what type of lifestyle do you want? I think in a vacuum, what most people I think want is to kind of live a similar right lifestyle than what they’re living as they’re as they’re working. So they don’t necessarily want to be more lavish. They don’t necessarily want to give up things either. Unfortunately, some people have to give up things just because of you know, poor planning or they have to work longer. So you know, what, where do you want to live? What’s the geography? What’s your housing situation, that’s going to be the biggest fixed expense. The biggest expense in retirement typically is housing. You know, what are your hobbies? Activities? Are you taking care of grandkids? Are you? Are you jet setting? Are you working? Are you not working? Are you volunteering? Consulting? What does that look like? And, you know, I think from there is, you know, estimating, you know what your retirement expenses would look like? So I mentioned like, what are the fixed expenses? What are the variable expenses, which could be big trips, maybe you’re paying for kids’ weddings, maybe it’s a medical expense. And really kind of zeroing in on that. Unfortunately, Tim the B word doesn’t ever go away. Right. So understanding what your budget looks like, is, is I think an integral part of of retirement planning. There are there are rules of things and way that you can slice it, there’s some planners that will look at the tax return, and then assume like, whatever’s on last year’s tax return is what I need for this coming year. And that’s kind of a very top down approach. A bottom up approaches a budget, you can use, use a rule of thumb, like a replacement ratio. So hey, if I make $100,000 and 70, or 80% replacement ratio means that I need $70-$80,000, you know, in that in that year of retirement. Looking at accounting for inflation, so do you think inflation is going to go up? It’s going to go back down to kind of the 3% levels? The big question is, is like what’s the retirement duration? Nobody knows that, right? So, you know, some people are like, Oh, I’m gonna, you know, retire at 65. And I, maybe I have a good five or 10 years on me, most people, you know, live longer when they want, they think they’re gonna retire. And that’s probably the trickiest part about all this, unlike, you know, other types of planning that are similar to this, like education planning, we kind of know that, hey, our goal was to kind of get through four years, maybe eight years of, you know, education. Here, it could be five years, it could be 45 years. We just don’t know. And that’s kind of the the major wildcard, but then understanding like, what are your sources of retirement? Is it social security? Is it a pension? Is it a, is it an annuity that you buy? Is it your traditional portfolio? Is there other types of you know, is it real estate income, whether your cash flow in real estate, or it’s a liquidation event? Are you selling a business? Is there a part time work there? So I think all of these play into play a part in it, and then I kind of how you distribute the cash also plays and how you handle taxes. So from a distribution perspective, you know, are you looking at, you know, what we’ve talked about in the past, which is a floor and strategy, which is very conservative strategy. Is it a bucket? You know, where, you know, in this, this will be, you know, another question that we have, it’s like, how do we account for like volatility or, you know, in the market? You know, is it a bucket strategy? Or is it the systemic withdrawal strategy, where it’s, Hey, we’re distributing 4%, no matter what, or we’re being flexible, depending on what interest rates what the markets doing? So lots of different lots of different ways to kind of, you know, go about this, but I think defining like, what optimal is for you is going to be important. And again, that’s why a lot of people are like, I just want to, you know, die with zero, that plays.I think the best place to start in terms of the optimal amount of savings needed for retirement to answer that question is, I think starting with a nest egg calculation is the best the best way. It is the, it is the best way, in my estimation, to deconstruct a problem and problem is not the right word, but a scenario that is years in the future, that’s a big freakin number. So, and when I was talking about this, like when we would do retirement planning at my past firm, you’d be the client and we would say, Okay, now now’s the time to talk about your retirement. Based on our time value of money calculation, you need $3.65 million to retire. Alright, let’s talk about your insurance, onto the next thing. And we could see kind of like, maybe the color come out of your face, maybe that little glossy, you know, glassy eyed look, and just, it didn’t connect with people. So, you know, it got me thinking, how can I make this number impactful to you today in 2024? So a nest egg calculation, which says, Okay, this is the number $3.65 million, but then what does that mean to me today? And we compare it to what’s currently in your retirement portfolio? What’s your contribution rate? How was it allocated? And then how does it compare, you know, to what you potentially need. So where are we running a deficit, meaning we’re behind on that $3.65 million? Or are we ahead meaning that we’re, you know, we’re overfunded? So to me, that’s, that’s the starting place. And again, it’s not a perfect, it’s not a perfect calculation, there’s a lot of assumptions in there in terms of investment returns and inflation and actually, when you’re going to retire and when you’re potentially going to die, we’re estimating all that which you would do anyway, in any type of, you know, scenario analysis. But to me, that’s the best way I think, to make that big number that kind of unknown, a little bit more digestible. There’s other ways that you can look at it, where there’s Monte Carlo analysis where you’re looking at, you know, a randomize portfolio return or other things that are related to you know, economic variables that you can say, hey, we’re going to run 1000s of scenarios and what it shows you is, hey, you’re a 85% chance of success. And that one chance of success means is that there are assets left, at the end of the plan, whether you set that for age 90, 95, 100, or whatever that is, that kind of is the next level. The rule of thumb is, you know, what people have heard of is a 4% rule. So, you know, if you’re, if you’re looking at your optimal savings plan, and you have $500,000, in retirement, if you use 4%, that means you have $20,000, over a 25-30 year return. So you might say, Hey, that’s not enough. I need more. So obviously, the right way to reverse engineer that, Tim, is to say, Okay, what do you need, if it’s 40,000, use a 25x, ROI, you need a million dollars, and that’s just a 4% rule inverted. So to me in terms of practical things that I wish I would have a listener, you know, it’s like, okay, are you getting the match, get to that race to the 10%. So your employee contribution, again, this is a vacuum. You know, I’ve talked with prospective clients that had lots of credit card debt, and other things that are going on, I wouldn’t necessarily prescribe this for them, but you know, get to the 10% employee contribution, then eventually, you know, get to a phase where you’re maxing out, and then use IRAs or brokerage accounts to kind of supplement along the way as you can. So, but remember that this is a problem set, Tim, that I think a lot of people think that they have control over that they that they don’t. You know, there’s a there’s a stat that says 40% of people don’t work to their expected retirement age, either because of health issues, or they were eliminated from a job, etc. You know, those types of things, I think where in my mind, I’m like, probably work till I’m 70 and Shay is 65. But, you know, I could lose my marbles was between, you know, before that, like, who knows? So, you know, I think I think, the best time again, I’m a planner, so I’m biased, but I think the best time to plan is now and the sooner you can kind of look at where you’re at and kind of be able to adjust where you need to go, the better. You know, one of the things that I would always kind of lament working with at my last firm was that we only worked with like pre retirees and retirees. So people would come off the street, and they’d say, Hey, I’m 55 years old, I’d like to retire in the next five years, I have $50,000, to my name, I have credit card debt, but like, it was almost like doesn’t, it doesn’t add up the math is not mathing. And so those are yeah, those are all the kinds of things that go into this. And it’s, it’s a huge thing to kind of deconstruct but I think, you know, looking at this as in a vacuum is not necessary ideal. You want to look at all the different parts. We talked about this with our own plans, and kind of, you know, where we’re trending and things like, you know, but it’s, it’s a big question, I think, and there’s just a lot of ways that kind of, you know, look at it. Yeah,

Tim Ulbrich  12:46

The thoughts that are coming to mind, as you’re talking, Tim, is I think there’s risk here to oversimplify this and be overconfident in this. And what I mean by the over over simplification is like, you can run numbers in a calculator. But if you’re not having some of the important discussions and questions of the inputs into that calculator, then we’re not doing the work that needs to be done, right. You mentioned like what what do we mean by optimal? Like, what does that actually look like? What does it mean to be living a wealthy life and retirement? As you mentioned, some huge variables of are we working at all? Are we working part time? You know, is this 55? Is this 64? You know, might we be caring for elderly parents? What does travel look like? What are all these things? And then, you know, when we think about even that word, retirement, I think can carry meaning that you and I might look at that word and say it means two very different things, right. And so, you know, when you talk about the nest egg calculation, to me that that is where the value really lies, to me the short answer of how do you determine the amount of savings needed for retirement? Nest egg calculation, three words. But to do the nest egg calculation and put in all the inputs and variables, which again, as you mentioned, are assumptions and things might change and move. And there are things that we think we have control over that we don’t, but it’s the closest we can get, and we can modify or update that look at it over time. In order to put the numbers in the calculator, we got to have some really good conversations. And this, to me is really where the planning comes to base, we’re not just trying to shove money away into accounts that were, you know, like, somebody said, I should put money in a 401 K, or an IRA or an HSA or whatever. Or we’re looking at these big scary numbers in the future thinking, Am I ever gonna get there? Looking at the individual variables, having the discussion and the conversations, answering those questions, plugging those in. And then as you mentioned, bringing it back to today. So important. Especially for the people that you know, for someone who’s two, three years out from retirement, that may not be as critical as for someone who’s in the middle of their career, or even in the front half of their career where, you know, we got to come up with a number that I can actually put my arms around and do something with today because otherwise I’m gonna look at this number 30 years in the future 20 or 40 years in the future and say, the math just doesn’t even seem possible.

Tim Baker  14:58

Yeah, in one of the things that when we go through the Script Your Plan, which is our second second meeting, and the way that we kind of start building a financial plan, we go through what’s called a Get Organized meeting, which is we bring up the client portal. And we’re basically trying to get to like a clean snapshot of what the balance sheet looks like. So the assets, the things that you own, minus the liabilities, the things that you owe equals your net worth. And our job is to hope, you know, the idea is to kind of grow that quantifably to get your, you know, your net worth grow over time. The second piece of that is Script Your Plan, which is all about like goal setting, right? So it’s like, Okay, now that we know where we’re at, where are we going? And with those two things in place, that that answer of it depends that I always give, Tim transforms into this is given your balance sheet, given your goals, Tim, this is what I think you should do. So it’s no more It depends. Because like, we know, you, we know what your goals are, we know what your passion is, this is what your goals are. But part of that Script Your Plan exercise, when we would kind of talk about a timeline, you know, we I would ask the question of, hey, like, it’s July 2024, let’s fast forward a year, what is success? And you know, what does success look like? And then we go three years, five years, 10 years, 30 years. The further you get out, you know, the further away that you go, the harder it is for you to kind of imagine that self. So with retirement planning, you know, the way that you know, with the way that I would do this, it’s like, I kind of, you know, I would say, hey, let’s get into the DeLorean. Let’s go 88 miles per hour, rev it up, we get out in, let’s see, 2054. So it’s 30 years from now, what does success look like? And for a lot of people, it’s like, I don’t know. So I’m like, okay, like, how much? How would your dad, you know, if I’m, if I’m 40. My dad’s like, imagine yourself, as your dad, like, pitch yourself, as a seventy year old, what does success look like? So it’s just like, the next day where we’re trying to, like, equate the numbers in from a from a Script Your Plan from a lifestyle perspective is, the further that gets out, the harder it is for us to kind of relate to our 10 year older self,  20 year older self, 30 year older self. So if there is a group or a person that you know, very closely that you can say, okay, like, if I’m in their shoes, and you probably do that, anyway, I’m like, oh, like, when I’m retired, I’m not going to do what my parents are gonna are doing, or I am going to do what my parents would do. So you can kind of like, take that, but even 10 years out, Tim, if you look 10 years back, from, you know, if you look back to 2014, how much of your life has changed over those 10 years,. You know, like, like, things like time flies, but, you know, to me, it’s like, you look at, you know, time is so hard for us, as humans can conceptualize. And it’s no different in in something like this. So I think it’s like, really kind of going through those, like thought experiments and, you know, kind of assessing, because I think so much of this is really about the numbers. But when you deconstruct this, it’s really not. You know, I think, you know, if you’re working with a financial planner, again, shameless plug, I think the numbers are going to be fine. Especially if you have enough time, you know, the longer that you’re engaged with, with a plan, the more success, you know, you know, whatever version of success. It’s the people that don’t, I think is where you kind of run into problems. But to me, it’s really important to kind of deconstruct like, the answer that question is what is optimal, and then plan around that, you know, the nice thing about, you know, having decades so to speak in a financial planner, is that the micro things that you do today really steer that frigget to where you can have success, you know, in the long run, so. But it’s an interesting, you know, it’s an interesting problem set, because it is a huge number. And it’s far in the future for a lot of people, it just, it doesn’t seem real, you know, I have a lot of people that, you know, will work with us in their 20s and 30s. Like, I’ll never be able to retire. And when we show them how, you know, the math to get to that, like, I think that’s transformative. Now, I think the second piece of that is like, okay, like, what is a happy retirement? What’s a successful retirement and I think people are starting to figure that out, but it’s not necessarily a destination, right? It’s just the next chapter. And, you know, especially with sometimes pharmacists, or like highly, you know, people that are higher achievers, you know, their role and identity gets really tied up together. And it’s like, okay, if you step away from your career as a pharmacist, like, who are you? What do you do? Like you know, and that and that for some people can be really difficult to kind of again, unbolt.

Tim Ulbrich  15:42

Tim, one thing I want to say and separate topic for another day that we can dive deeper into, we’ve talked about in the show before, but when you talk about time, being hard to really, you know, wrap our mind around, especially for folks that are early in their career, you know, your 2014 examples, a really good one when I think back to 2014, like it’s a distant memory and and it feels like Yeah, we were doing some savings and things now, but if it weren’t for things like automation, you could see how a 10 year period slips by you without having the intention out. This is why we believe so firmly in automation is an important part of plan. Yes, we got to do the hard work up front. Yes, we got to check in periodically. But once we start to kind of remove ourselves from that equation, and we do that hard work, and then we turn it on, whether it’s automatic contributions, it could be automatic savings buckets or other things, that’s where we’re gonna start to really see the progress and prevent this scenario where we say, How did those 10 years go by? And I didn’t make much progress on my retirement planning?

Tim Baker  19:32

Yeah. Yeah, I think it’s so important, because we just get into this, like, autopilot and you wake up. It’s like, where did that? Where did it go? 

Tim Ulbrich  19:56

Yeah. Alright, second question we have is, what are some strategies for dealing with market downturns during retirement? If we even zoom this out a little bit more? I’m guessing this person might be asking, you know, given the volatility, certainly the markets had a good run lately, but it’s been pretty volatile, right, you know, over the last couple of years. So for those that are, you know, in what you call that eye of the storm, around retirement, or coming up on, just got to retirement, or maybe they’ve been in retirement for a period of time? How do we address and deal with some of the market volatility?

Tim Baker  21:11

Yeah, so this is market risks, and you really don’t have any control over at all outside of like, taking all your money out, you know, take your investment ball home, and, you know, and go home, right? So like, this is where people get scared, they’ll go to cash, and they typically are selling low, but then they like, oh, the markets good now, and, you know, dip my toe back in, and they’re buying high. So you know, what you’re talking about a sequence risk where is where it’s basically, you know, when the timing of your retirement, and the distribution of your retirement accounts, matters a lot. Probably more so than most of the other investment or the retirement risks that are there. So to kind of zoom out of this first, Tim, this question is, you know, what are some so the question is, what are some strategies for dealing with market downturns during retirement. So what we’re assuming here is that you are no longer in that accumulation phase, you are in the deaccumulation, that withdrawal phase. But I think like the, the, my thoughts is, are consistent no matter where you’re at. You know, to me, the big things that I look at from a retirement portfolio is I want to make sure that you’re in the right allocation, and that you’re driving the expenses down as much as possible related to your portfolio. Now, what I’m taking, typically talking about here is like expense ratio. So the right allocation is probably the optimal, you know, the optimal term in and I think, if you look at the rule of thumb, that I don’t love is the rule of thumb in terms of like, how you should have your portfolio allocated is, you take 110, you subtract your age, and that’s the amount of stocks or equities you should be in your portfolio. So if I’m 40, you take 110, minus 40. And I should be in a 70%, stock portfolio and a and a 30%, bond portfolio, which I think and it’s very much a linear thing. So as you as you age, go, 60/40, 50/50, etc, etc. I think that that’s wrong. I don’t think that that’s a great rule of thumb. I think that, to me, I look at this almost as like a, my, my strategy or my thought process is more like a cliff. So my thought is like, you know, if I’m 40 years old, and I have 30% of my allocation in bonds, I think that’s a mistake. And if we, if we zoom out, you know, if you look at stocks, and again, not all stocks are created equal, but in broad strokes, stocks are typically there’s a higher potential for growth, with a lot more volatility. Bonds or fixed income, there’s less potential for growth, but less volatility. So there’s more of an exponential growth with stocks and more of a linear growth of bonds. So, to me, what you give up during the accumulation phase, if you’re in your 40s, is you give up a lot of the market, the market is still gonna go up, but I equate it to like, if you’re in mostly equities, it’s gonna be kind of Rocky Mountain in terms of ups and downs. If you put bonds and there’s more Appalachian Mountains, there’s a little bit more, you know, you know, there’s less ups less downs, but they’re still they’re still that. So to me, I think that, uh, mostly equity, you know, again, this is not investment advice, but I think like maybe mainly in equities in your accumulation phase. And then when you get to five to ten years before and after your retirement age, that’s when you’re going to, that’s when you’re really going to manage the sequence of return risks that you mentioned. So think of that as like the eye of the storm. So let’s assume that my retirement age is 65. And I’m being as conservative from a timeline perspective, at 55. That’s when I really am going to kind of that’s what that’s the cliff where I’m going to say, Okay, I’m now no longer going to be mostly in equities. That’s where I’m going to be the most conservative and go to bonds. So instead of this glide path, where I’m going from 100% equities to 80, 90, basically, I’m not doing that over a period of years, I’m doing that right when I hit 55, and that’s where I’m going into more of a balanced portfolio, which could be a 60/40, or 50/50. And then over those years in that either storm, so 55, to 75. And the most conservative sense, that’s when you’re gonna be the most conservative in terms of your balanced portfolio. And then when you come out of the eye of the storm, that’s when you start ramping up the equities, again, whether that’s 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, which is very different than kind of the, you know, most people, it’s like, oh, you’re in your 80s, you should be in a 20/80 portfolio or whatever. And a lot of people, it’s, it’s not sustainable. So the the eye of the storm is to kind of get through the sequence of return risk. So, you know, and again, the most successful retirees are the ones that are most flexible. So if you go through like the subprime mortgage crisis, or the.com crisis, and your portfolio goes from a million to 700,000, and then you’re drawing $50,000, you know, for the next couple years, the portfolio and a lot of cases are going to fail. If you were to delay your retirement and wait for the market to recover two years later, it’s completely different scenario. So that to me, is what we’re talking about here. So you know, the strategies for dealing that is, I think the best thing is the being the right allocation is to not do what you’re feeling. So I always talk about do the opposite of how you’re feeling. So if you get scared, a lot of people should go cash and a lot of ways you should be doubling down and investing. Another thing that we’ve talked about in the in the in this forum, Tim, is something like an annuity, which is hard to really wrap people’s minds around, but like if I can peel off $300,000 from my portfolio, to supplement Social Security to say, Okay, come hell or high water, I’m gonna have the steady check between social security in my annuity, regardless of what’s going on. For that, for a lot of people, that’s a peace of mind. So like the the market volatility is not as as big a concern, because I’m like, I don’t I have all my basic necessities, necessities handled. Right. So the mental thing of like an annuity might be might be a big thing. Being flexible, as I mentioned in, it could be a bucketing approach where you’re like, hey, my, my near term bucket, my zero to five year bucket is spoken for me and I have that in cash or tips, I’m good. So I don’t care what the market does, you know, as long as it’s recovered in the next five years for me to kind of replenish that bucket. And this is where we’re basically have a short term and medium term, and then a long term bucket. So short term, zero to five, medium term, six to 15, long term 15 plus, and then those buckets kind of replenish themselves as time goes. If there’s, if we’re in a time where the market crashes, but I still have $100-$200,000 in my cash bucket, I don’t really care, I’m hoping the market will return in that period of time to replenish that cash bucket. And typically, it should. A lot of the most, you know, the Great Depression in the Great Recession, you know, those recover those market recoveries aren’t decades. They are typically, you know, two to six years, two to seven years, that type of thing. So that could be that can be something as well. So, you know, the market, the market does what the market does. And I think those are that are best positioned like they they understand that. It’s not, you know, we’re not trying to like game the market, outside of very few people in the history of the market can can beat the market and kind of, you know, foreshadow what’s going to come. So it’s, it’s being in the right asset allocation. It’s keeping your expenses low. And being consistent with that structure. I think we’ll get people through any of the see any of the seasons that you’ll see over the course of an investing career.

Tim Ulbrich  28:42

Tim, let me mention a few resources for people that want to dig deeper, and this will link to these in the show notes. It’s been a while but we did a whole series on retirement planning, digging into the question of how much is enough, some of the alphabet soup of different accounts, building a retirement paycheck, things that you’ve been talking about that was episodes 272 through 275. Again, we’ll link to that in the show notes. And then 305, episode 305. We did a primer on annuities, a lot of myths, conceptions around annuities, we try to break those down, understanding what they are: fees, costs. That was a great episode. Again, we’ll link to it in the show notes. And then several of the risks that you’ve talked about, we put together a guide that’s all around understanding retirement risks. So it’s Retirement Roadblocks: Identifying and Managing 10 Common Risks. It’s a free guide that we have available. One of the most popular resources we have, again, that will be linked to in the show notes as well. Tim, one thing that struck me is you were talking you mentioned flexibility, right is a key. And this is a piece I think that pharmacists have a benefit of, right. Many pharmacists work in a position, whether that be hospital, whether that be community practice where they have an opportunity to do something like PRN shifts or work part time and make a good income. And so, you know, maybe the game game plan was a full retirement at 55, but because of some of the things that you talked about, maybe they either choose to work longer, full time or hey, if they want to pick up 15-20 hours, making $60-$65 bucks an hour, a lot of pharmacists have the opportunity to do that. And so I think that flexibility piece can be really important, specifically to our audiences as they’re thinking about retirement.

Tim Baker  30:12

Yeah. And what I This, to me, this stat still like is unbelievable to me. So this was these two stats were put out by a paper called The Power of Working Longer published in January 2018, by Stanford’s Institute for Economic Policy Research. And basically, it makes the case for working longer. That’s the best, you know, medicine for if you have a shortfall shortfall in income for retirement. But we talked about sequence risk Tim, so we know the market. So like, let’s say, you know, you know, 65, in, you know, 20 years from now, not quite there yet. But say the market is not going great. Deferring retirement by three to six months is like saving 1% more of salary for 30 years. Deferred retirement by one month is like saving 1% more of salary for the final 10 years. So, to me, there’s I know there’s a lot of pharmacists that are listening to this that I speak to, they’re like, I need to retire as quickly as possible. And I get it, I get it, I understand. But but to me, like the people that are most flexible from a lifestyle, from a timing, are going to be the most successful in terms of their retirement. So if you have a lever that you can pull that you can consult or you can do, you know, you can do a shift or medical, right, whatever that is, you know, whatever that that is like that’s going to benefit you and over and help the overall retirement picture. So those would be two stats, I would leave you with us on this question.

Tim Ulbrich  31:44

That’s great. And it’s a balance, right? We talked about this all the time, it’s a balance between, hey, you make enough of these concessions. And you could always argue, hey, I should keep working longer, right? So we’ve got to get back to like, what’s the why, what’s the purpose, but also be in tune with those numbers, which aren’t wild when you talk about one month of employment, and the impact that it has in terms of dollars that could have been saved. Our next question: how to different investment options such as stocks, bonds, real estate impact retirement savings? And I think, Tim, this is a really interesting question, because one of the things we lose sight of when we talk about nest egg calculations, retirement planning, we talked about these big numbers, 3 million, 4 million, 5 million, is that not all dollars are created equal? Right? Both in how are they invested, and the types of investments in which they’re in and then eventually, how they’re utilized to build the retirement paycheck. So what are your thoughts here in terms of how do different investment options impact retirement savings?

Tim Baker  32:37

Yeah, so this question is really about like asset classes. So when we talk about a traditional portfolio, you know, there’s a, we talked about a high level, you know, a 90/10 portfolio and it would be 90% in stocks or equities and 10% in bonds or fixed income. That 90% you can, you can draw even a finer line, you can have large cap, mid cap, small cap, you could have international funds, you could have emerging market, you could have commodities, you could have, you know, you could have sector funds that are just in biopharmaceuticals or whatever. You could have digital assets. So, the big news this year was that they released spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week, Tim, they released nine, eight or nine spot theoreum ETFs, which have come on the market and started trading last Tuesday. So that can be part of your your asset allocation now, because they’re, they’re in ETFs. The bonds at 10%, you could buy a total market bond, or you could buy different types. You could buy munis, you could buy treasuries, you can buy a total market and international bond, like there’s lots of ways to kind of, you know, slice it. But you can also talk to, you know, real estate, you know, one of the things is like, you know, is it real? Is it real estate, you can hold real estate in a mutual fund or an ETF, or you can hold it directly. So, to me, this kind of goes back to the one of the earlier questions is, you know, the more stocks, there’s the potential for more growth, but more volatility and risk, the more bonds less potential for growth, but less volatility and risk. So I think, at a baseline, being in the right, asset allocation from a traditional portfolio is really important. And this is what I’m talking about is, you know, should you be in an all equity or, you know, a 9010, and then hit that cliff and then go to a 60/40 or 50/50. That’s what I’m going to talk about from a traditional, but the things that we have to overlay, Tim, and I was talking about this with you a couple of weeks ago, I was kind of lamenting the fact that we talked about like tax allocation with retirement with your, your investment assets. So we kind of talked about we went a little bit in column A, Column B, Column C. Column A would be pre you know, like traditional. So pre tax, so these are, you know, traditional 401 K traditional IRA, etc. Then you want a little bit in Roth, which is kind of tax free since you’ve already paid  the taxes. So this is like And when you pour out a Roth, if you have a million dollars, all that million is yours because you’ve already paid the tax man. And then the last one is a taxable account. So I was looking at my taxable account as a percentage of my portfolio, I’m like, oh, that’s exactly where I want. Now, I don’t have any designs on retirement before 59 and a half. So I don’t really need, that’s typically what you use a taxable account for the purpose of retirement. But I know like when I sell my real estate, that’s probably going to go into a taxable account. So like, like, right now, I know the plan is, it’s kind of unequal scales, though, they’ll be equaled out in the future, or when I sell my share of our business like that will probably go into partly a savings account, but partly a long term investment, you know, in the form of a taxable account. So to me, that plays a part of this as well. So I think the the idea is to be in the right asset allocation, as opposed to what I talked about, typically, the one that you’re it’s going to be more stock heavy is going to have more volatility. So the closer you are to retirement, or in retirement, the less you’re going to want to have, although it’s still needed for the kind of that longevity risk of like not live outliving your savings. Real estate, it’s going to be typically how you know how your whole net, whether you are a landlord, or if it’s in a fund. But the things that we haven’t really talked about this, as part of this is things like digital assets, things like commodities, cash – right now, Tim, you could, you know, with our cash accounts at YFP, it’s paying like 5.1%. So I’m looking at that, and like, if I’m a retiree, if I can park, my short term bucket there, I’m pretty happy with that return. Now, I know inflation has been ticking up higher. So maybe need a little bit more to offset that. But these are all the things that kind of construct the retirement, you know, savings and retirement assets. And I think, you know, doing it with a traditional portfolio, but then overlay in some of the other things that you have going on, you know, if you have a pension, that’s going to affect how you retire, you know, your allocation is, because if you have a if you have a pension plus social security, you might not have to be super conservative, because you might say like, Hey, my, most of my things are handled, or if I buy an annuity, I can be more aggressive, because I’m not going to have to withdrawal that as aggressively as if I didn’t have that annuity or that pension. So there’s lots of different things. But I think the rule of thumb is kind of looked at your stock to bond, you know, ratio, and understand that with stocks, again, more growth, more volatility. With bonds, less growth, less volatility.

Tim Ulbrich  37:30

And I think you just gave a great example there, why blanket asset allocation recommendations don’t work, right? Because, you know, if someone’s listening, and they have a pension, and they have social security, or maybe they have an annuity, like the floor that they’ve created, is completely different from someone else that maybe doesn’t have a pension or annuity, And therefore, they’re going to rely more on withdrawing from their investments. So how much risk they take with the remaining amount of whatever’s investable, and whatever buckets they have, could be very different based on you know, what those are? And I think this question gets at a couple different aspects of asset allocation, which you talked about nicely, but also a conversation. We don’t have enough, which is that d cumulation. Building that paycheck from what buckets are we taking from and how do we do that? And what order tax strategies all those things? And I think for people are listening that maybe have done the hard work, are nearing retirement, have two, three $4 million saved whatever the number is. That’s great. Now, hey, are we thinking about the decumulation side of this?

Tim Baker  38:30

Yeah, and that was one of the reasons, Tim, after going through the CFP coursework, you know, I decided to do the Ri CP, which is Retirement Income Certified Professional, because it really tackles that question that the CFP I don’t think does the best job. CFP is all about, okay, accumulation of accumulated assets and what that looks like. But once you get to that, that’s not the destination, then the next chapter, how do you take these buckets of money and build a sustainable, sustainable paycheck over time? Unknown, right. And actually, one of the open questions in in that is like, if you do build a floor for a client, and they’re, you know, they’re a 75 year old, but their allocation is something like 90/10 or 80/20. A lot of regulators will look at that and be like, that doesn’t look right. But you know, the justification, that’s why you can’t have a blanket, you know, yeah, one rule for everyone. The justification is like, we really don’t have to draw that much from that portfolio. Because, right, the floor is the floor, right? So I remember that being kind of like, oh, that’s odd. Because, you know, again, most, most planners, they kind of they go, they get social security in place. And then they say, Okay, what’s the total return? What’s the best optimal way to get the portfolio through the all the retirement years, but it’s much more nuanced than that. And I think, you know, it’s important to understand that.

Tim Ulbrich  39:54

And that’s why for the pharmacists that are listening, that are working for an employer, like the VA or whoever that still has a pension plan, be grateful for that. They’re not they’re not common, but it’s gonna play a huge role when it comes to building that floor  and creating that retirement paycheck. We’ve got lots more retirement questions. I’m gonna hit pause there. We’ll tackle more of those in future episodes, we’ve done a lot of information in a short period of time again, we got more resources. If you’re listening to this, and I want to learn more, make sure to check out the YFP podcast again, we’ll link to some of these older episodes in the show notes. You can go back and learn more, we’ve got more information on the YFP blog as well. We have more webinars that will be forthcoming related to retirement retirement planning that Tim and the rest of the team will be leading. So be on the lookout for those as well. For those that are listening and said, Hey, I really could use some one on one help with a qualified, certified financial planner, we’d love to have the opportunity to talk with you to learn more about your situation to see whether or not what we offer is a good fit in the form of fee only financial planning and or tax planning. If you’re interested in a discovery call with Tim Baker to learn more about the services, you can go to yourfinancialpharmacist.com you’ll see a link there to book a discovery call. Thanks so much for listening, Tim. Great stuff. We’ll catch you again next week.

Tim Baker  41:03

Sounds good.

Tim Ulbrich  41:06

Before we wrap up today’s show, I want to again thank this week’s sponsor of the Your Financial Pharmacist Podcast, First Horizon. We’re glad to have found a solution for pharmacists that are unable to save 20% for a down payment on a home. A lot of pharmacists in the YFP community have taken advantage of First Horizon’s pharmacist home loan, which requires a 3% downpayment for a single family home or townhome for first time homebuyers and has no PMI on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. To learn more about the requirements for First Horizon’s Pharmacist Home Loan, and to get started with the pre approval process, you can visit yourfinancialpharmacists.com/home-loan again, that’s yourfinancialpharmacist.com/home-loan. 

Tim Ulbrich  41:51

[DISCLAIMER] As we conclude this week’s podcast, an important reminder that the content on this show is provided to you for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for investment or any other advice. Information in the podcast and corresponding materials should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any investment or related financial products. We urge listeners to consult with a financial advisor with respect to any investment. Furthermore, the information contained in our archived newsletters, blog posts and podcasts is not updated and may not be accurate at the time you listen to it on the podcast. Opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely those of Your Financial Pharmacist unless otherwise noted and constitute judgments as of the dates published. Such information may contain forward looking statements, which are not intended to be guaranteed of future events. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward looking statements. For more information, please visit yourfinancialpharmacist.com/disclaimer. Thank you again for your support of the Your Financial Pharmacist podcast. Have a great rest of your week.

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